US Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

This page contains 1, 3, 5, and 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the NCEP Weather Prediction Center , the NCEP Global Forecast System Model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Below are links for 6-hourly QPF maps from the GFS and ECMWF and 3 and 24-hourly QPF maps from the West-WRF. While intended for use by professional meteorologists, the WPC data and charts are available to the public and may be of interest to those of us who love the weather and enjoy measuring and making our own predictions.

• The surface analysis is a manual analysis of surface fronts and pressure over North America and adjacent oceans performed every three hours.
• Slotting into the gap in between weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts, sub-seasonal forecasts essentially blend the methods and sources of predictability used in both .
• We are looking forward to expanding the breadth of our knowledge as we seek collaboration with the social-science community.
• In addition, discussions are written on each shift and issued with the forecast packages that highlight the meteorological reasoning behind the forecasts and significant weather across the continental United States.
• Extreme precipitation events can range from short and intense periods of rainfall that result in flash flooding (e.g., mesoscale convective rainstorms) to…
• All of these forecasts identify areas where there are tendencies towards above-normal or below-normal conditions, much like their seasonal climate forecasts .

The QPF maps on Drought.gov are updated daily and are valid from 12z (7 a.m. Eastern) that day. 8—Forecast Tools page.In fact, for those who read their local Forecast Office’s forecast discussion on their web page, it’s quite common to find mention of adjustments and alterations to their forecast that modify the WPC’s data. Local meteorologists, who have seen how terrain, microclimates, and other factors can modify weather systems, often make adjustments to the data if they think the WPC is forecasting, for instance, too much snow or rain or not enough. 6—Winter Weather Forecasts.The Day 3-7 tab (Fig. 7) is a five-day look-ahead at forecast positions of fronts and pressure centers.

Hourly Precipitation Amounts – Day 1

Weather and climate forecasts address our need to know what the weather will be like over the coming hours, days, weeks, and months. Weather forecasts over mid-latitude continental areas like the Colorado River Basin have very high skill (~accuracy) for the first 1-3 day; skill is somewhat lower https://quick-bookkeeping.net/ for the next 3-4 days, and then it drops off dramatically . The main source of predictability and skill for weather forecasts is the accurate description of the initial conditions of the atmosphere by global networks of observations from land and ocean stations, satellites, and aircraft.

Chapter 7 of the State of the Science report covers many aspects of Weather and climate forecasts in much greater detail. NIDIS is a multi-agency partnership that coordinates drought monitoring, forecasting, planning, and information at national, state, and local levels across the country. 7—Medium Range Forecasts.The final tab, Forecast Tools (Fig. 8), contains links to predictive tools used by NWS meteorologists when assembling Wpc Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts their local forecasts. Like much of the quantitative data on the Weather Prediction Center’s website, a notice at the top of the page warns that the information is a prototype and may not update regularly. Forecast of surface pressures five days into the future for the north Pacific, North America, and north Atlantic Ocean. NMC changed its name to NCEP, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction on October 1, 1995.

Severe Storms and Heavy Rain Threats

The skill of climate forecasts is much lower than for weather forecasts in all parts of the world . The WPC Surface Analysis is part of the NWS Unified Surface Analysis and a collaborative effort with the Ocean Prediction Center, the National Hurricane Center, and the Honolulu Weather Forecast Office. The WPC focuses on the synoptic and mesoscale features over North America, primarily north of 31N. The surface analysis is a manual analysis of surface fronts and pressure over North America and adjacent oceans performed every three hours. The analysis utilizes a variety of weather data in addition to observations of surface weather conditions, such as upper air observations, global satellite imagery, Doppler radar, and model mass fields to ensure that the product is meteorologically consistent. The WPC Winter Weather Desk issues heavy snow and icing forecast products, which support the NWS winter weather watch/warning/outlook program.

• The skill of weather forecasts declines as the lead time lengthens, because the information contained in the initial patterns is gradually lost to unpredictable chaotic motions of the atmosphere.
• 4—Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from WPC home page.The Excessive Rain tab (Fig. 5, below) is the prediction that rainfall will exceed flash flood guidance, i.e. the probability of rainfall high enough to cause flash flooding.
• Like seasonal climate forecasts, official NOAA sub-seasonal forecasts are expressed probabilistically, as the likelihood of anomalous conditions.
• They also forecast precipitation amounts for the lower 48 United States for systems expected to impact the country over the next seven days.
• With access to WSR-88D/Doppler radar data, satellite estimates, and NCEP model forecast data as well as current weather observations and WPC analyses, the forecaster has the latest data for use in preparation of short-range precipitation forecasts.